Inside the Crystal Ball

Inside the Crystal Ball

How to Make and Use Forecasts

Maury Harris

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Copyright © 2015 by Maury Harris. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Harris, Maury.

Inside the crystal ball: how to make and use forecasts / Maury Harris.

pages cm

Includes index.

ISBN 978-1-118-86507-1 (cloth) – ISBN 978-1-118-86517-0 (ePDF) – ISBN 978-1-118-86510-1 (ePub)

1. Economic forecasting. 2. Business cycles. 3. Forecasting. I. Title.

HB3730.H319 2015

330.01′12 – dc23

2014027847

A long and rewarding career in forecasting has importantly reflected the consistent support and intellectual stimulation provided by my colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank for International Settlements, PaineWebber, and UBS. Senior research management at those institutions rewarded me when I was right and were understanding at times when I was not so right. My colleagues over the years have been a source of inspiration, stimulation, criticism, and encouragement.

Special thanks are addressed to my professional investment clients at PaineWebber and UBS. Thoughtful and challenging questions from them have played a key role in my forming a commercially viable research agenda. Their financial support of my various economics teams via institutional brokerage commissions has always been much appreciated and never taken for granted in the highly competitive marketplace in which economic forecasters practice their trade.